ONLY THE HISTORICALLY NAIVE FALL FOR GLOBAL WARMING CRISIS HYSTERIA
This is from Florida State University and their climatological division.
“Unless a dramatic and perhaps historical flurry of activity occurs in the next nine weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole for tropical cyclones.”
Historically inactive!
“During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date than this year. However, the year is not over,” they say hopefully.
Now, we have this little rain event down there near Puerto Rico and so forth. It’s dumping lots of rain, ten to 12 inches, but it’s going to be curving out over the way. It’s never going to become anything more than a tropical storm. According to forecasts, it’s not going to become a hurricane. So this is the fifth storm this year; we had five last year, and a total of ten since Hurricane Katrina.
The point here is that the global warming mob predicted Hurricane Katrinas year, after year, after year after 2005 because sea surface temperatures had risen, and, of course, man was baking the planet and these catastrophic storms were off the charts.
So people have been predicting this, and they have been dead wrong.
We’re going to post this because there are just a couple of fascinating charts here that show this lack of activity.
By: Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University
Cross Post at Climate Audit (h/t) Steve McIntyre
Unless a dramatic and historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 9 weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date (January-TODAY, Accumulated Cyclone Energy). For the period of June 1 – TODAY, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007. For the North Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Noel is currently too weak to impact any of these results. However, one should always be prepared for late-season developments since hurricane season ends on November 30.
2007 lowest September activity on record since 1977
2006 and 2007 lowest October activity on record since 1976 and 1977
There are currently two worldwide tropical cyclones: Tropical Storm Noel and Unnamed Arabian Sea TS…
The North Atlantic hurricane season is currently nearly 30% below normal in terms of a well-known activity metric called ACE. While the number of named storms is above normal, their integrated intensity has not matched the hyper-active expectations of many seasonal forecasters (e.g. NOAA 140-200% above median). The Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico is also experiencing record inactivity. NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update
Note: on average to date (1970-2006), the Eastern Pacific season is 97% completed, Western Pacific 82%, North Atlantic 93% and overall Northern Hemisphere 87%.
Figure 1. can be permanently found at 2007 Tropical Activity Update (Climatology 1970-2006)
Historic Northern Hemisphere Inactivity During Summer and Early Fall
Figure 2. illustrates the number of tropical cyclone days since 1970 for the Northern Hemsiphere. It represents all storms of > 34 knots intensity during the calendar year (Jan-Dec). On average, an additional 40 tropical cyclone days are expected for the period of October 27 – December 31 (sigma of 16 days). The current departure from the long-term mean is 140 TC days. Approximately 70 tropical cyclone days occurred during the latter parts of 1984, 1992, and 1997.
Figure 2. Historical tropical cyclone days for the calendar year for the Northern Hemisphere including the Eastern Pacific, Northern Western Pacific, Northern Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and North Atlantic Ocean Basins. A storm must have at least 34 knot maximum sustained winds to be included. The red line marks the mean/median of a climatology constructed from 1970-2006 data. Data during the 1970s should be considered with caution.
Figure 3. Historical hurricane days for the calendar year for Northern Hemisphere (as in Fig 2) — must be > 64 knots wind observations. For the remainder of the year, on average, 16 additional hurricane days have occurred. The most active years were 1984, 1990, 1992, and 1997 with > 30 additional H-days for Oct 27-Dec 31. The least active years typically see less than 10 H-days including 1999 and 2000 (8 H-days) and 1973 (0 H-days).
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE JUNE 1 – NOV 30 ACE
NORTH ATLANTIC *** WEST PACIFIC *** EAST PACIFIC ***
Hurricane Ioke of 2006 accounted for 15% of overall Northern Hemisphere TC ACE
Currently, the North Atlantic Basin accounts for 20% of the overall Northern Hemisphere Activity
TC Climatology Trivia
Previous years with exceptionally weak ACE activity (to date: October 29, 00Z)
Link: Tab delimited file of % departure from 1970-2006 Mean to date.
Format of Tab file: EPAC, WPAC, NH, NATL
Sorted Historical Departures [% from 1970-2006 mean to date]:
***EPAC ***WPAC ***NH ***NATL
1983 saw a couple powerful typhoons in the Western Pacific in November. 1977 similarly had several late season typhoons. In the Eastern Pacific, 1983 was very active in October and November with 3 Major Hurricanes. Raymond had a particularly long track. The Atlantic season saw no October activity in 1983.
Link: ACE June 1 – November 30, 1970-2006 for each basin
Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005)
PDI is simply the cubic version of ACE with considerably more weight to more intense storms.
2007 PDI Departure from Climatology (thru October 29, 00Z) **** Current PDI (climo PDI)
Northern Hemisphere = -26% **** 29739 (40288)
North Atlantic = -10% **** 6555 (7282) Effects of the Category 5’s
Eastern Pacific = -64% **** 3875 (10704) Historic inactivity
Western Pacific = -21% **** 17200 (21783) To date, very anomalous
PDI Distribution Climatology (scaled)
Distribution (1944-2007) of PDI per storm: 1% [1.72] ** 3% [2.32] ** 5% [3.0] ** 10% [4.1] ** 25% [8.8] ** 50% [28.3]
75% [103] ** 90% [216] ** 95% [326] ** 98.5% [504] ** 99% [552] ** Max Ivan [859]
Text File of climatological PDI for each day (values are PDI)
Text File of the % to date of PDI [EPAC, WPAC, NORTHHEMI, NATL]
Other Notable World Tropical Cyclones and PDI
Hurricane / SuperTyphoon Ioke 2006 (927)
SuperTyphoon Chaba (WPAC) 2004 (752)
Hurricane Linda (EPAC) 1997 (363) Category 5, strongest on Record
SuperTyphoon Tip (WPAC) 1979 (695) Category 5, lowest ever recorded MSLP of 870 mb
Pre-1944 Notable Hurricanes and PDI
New England Hurricane 1938 (421)
Hurricane 13 of 1936: Landfall North Carolina (297)
Hurricanes 11, 12, 13, 18 of 1933: (198, 213, 236, 234)
Freeport Hurricane of 1932 (55) very rapid pre-landfall development
Cuba Hurricane of 1932 (429)
Bahamas Hurricane of 1932 (447) Category 5
Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 (537) Category 5
Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 (429) Category 4.9
Hurricane 4 of 1926 (680) Long Cape Verde 22 days duration
Hurricane 2 of 1922 (432) Bermuda
Florida Keys Hurricane of 1919 (447)
Galveston Hurricane of 1915 (325)
Hurricane 3 of 1915 (433) no landfall
2007 North Atlantic Season storm PDI
Andrea 2.3 (Subtropical)
Barry 3.4
Chantal 2.5
Dean 386
Erin 1.3 (weak weak weak)
Felix 215
Gabrielle 4.0
Humberto 8.2
Ingrid 2.8
Jerry 2.4
Karen 17.2
Lorenzo 6.7
Melissa 1.9 ACE (Bell et al. 2000) Climatology
Text File of climatological ACE for each day (values are ACE)
Text File of the % to date of ACE [EPAC, WPAC, NORTHHEMI, NATL]
Climatological North Atlantic ACE during calendar year
Northern Hemisphere Plot
Eastern Pacific Plot
Western Pacific Plot
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Other global warming news:
“Rising temperatures could wipe out more than half the earth’s species in the next few centuries, according to researchers who published a study last week linking climate change to past mass extinctions. The study analyzed fossil records, temperature changes over 500 million years, and found that three of the four biggest extinctions, defined as when more than 50% of species disappeared, occurred during periods of high temperature.”
So, wait. Wait, wait. “Five hundred million years…three of the four biggest extinctions…defined periods of high temperature“?
So there’s nothing new about what’s happening now.
I mean, how can we have all these extinctions with no talk of man-made global warming 500 million years ago? “The upper end of the forecast rise would heat the earth close to the temperatures of 250 million years ago when 95% of all animal and plant species became extinct.“
This is a guy, Ken Caldeira, a scientist at the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology. This was in the New York Times, an op-ed piece.
“Despite growing interest in clean energy technology it looks as if we’re not going to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide any time soon. The amount in the atmosphere today exceeds the most pessimistic forecasts made just a few years ago. It’s increasing faster than anybody had foreseen.“
Yeah, and the temperature rise is negligible!
“Even if we could stop adding the greenhouse gases tomorrow, the earth would continue warming for decades and remain hot for centuries.“ We would still face the threat of water from melting glaciers lapping at our doorsteps.
…………………………………………………
This is from James Lewis at the American Thinker.
The headline says it all: “‘Earth Climate is Too Complex to Predict.‘ Science magazine just published a critical review of climate models by Professors Gerald Roe and Marcia Baker of the University of Washington, Seattle. It is echoed in the New Scientist magazine (October 25).
As New Scientist puts it, ‘Climate is too complex for accurate predictions.’ It is evident that the climate system is operating in a regime in which small uncertainties in feedbacks are highly amplified in the resulting climate sensitivity. We are constrained by the inevitable: The more likely a large warming is for a given forcing (i.e., the greater the positive feedbacks), the greater the uncertainty will be in the magnitude of that warming.”
That’s science lingo, but it means is that “After hundreds of millions of dollars spent on climate modeling, and decades of screaming headlines, we have no more certainty today about Global Warming prediction than we did decades ago. What’s more, that is a provable inherent limitation of the data and models.”
The earth is way too complex, the atmosphere, to try to predict this.
Resources:
COAPS: 2007 Yearly Tropical Cyclone Activity to Date
Reuters: Global Warming Could Wipe Out Most Species – Study
American Thinker: SCIENCE: Earth Climate is Too Complex to Predict – James Lewis
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