We have great economic news out there.

“Employers added about twice as many new employees last month than expected.”

It’s always a surprise when the economy does well.

This is Reuters. “Factory orders edged up. The government reports on Friday implied the economy was strong enough to avoid a recession.”

Who’s talking about a recession? The media and the Democrats are talking, what recession?

On CNBC, Larry Kudlow is on with Robert B. Reich. They’re discussing the economic growth3.9%, and the jobs numbers, numbers that came out earlier this week,

Robert B. Reich said, “At least we can say that with these job numbers the recession is not starting now.”

What is all this talk about a recession?

USA Today, by Susan Page:

A year before voting, a nation of discontent, divided by the war, anxious about the future, Americans want some fixes. “Call us the Unhappy States of America. One year before Election Day 2008, most Americans are dismayed by the country’s direction, pessimistic about the Iraq war and anxious about the economy. Two of three disapprove of the job President Bush is doing. Nearly a year after Democrats took control of Congress, three of four Americans say it isn’t achieving much, either. In all, 72% of those surveyed in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Oct. 12-14 say they are dissatisfied with how things are going in the USA while just 26% are satisfied. Not since April have even one-third of Americans been happy with the country’s course, the longest national funk in 15 years.” Fifteen years, 1992. Why, that just happens to coincide with the Clinton campaign, the worst economy in the last 15 years, isn’t this a coincidence?

“‘Don’t get me wrong, America’s a great country,’ says Lori Jones, 46, a medical assistant in Phoenix. But she worries about her family’s finances and prospects for the next generation. ‘I think we’ve somehow lost our way.'” There’s plenty of time for attitudes to change before the election, of course, but the current landscape is the sort that in the past has prompted political upheaval and third-party candidacies. The last time the national mood was so gloomy was in 1992, when the first President Bush was ousted from the White House and H. Ross Perot received the highest percentage of the vote of any third-party candidate in 80 years. Bill Clinton was elected amid economic angst.”

This was a four-page story. I’ve only gotten through half of the first page.

This is classic.

This story and others like it for the past four years is exactly why some people have a pessimistic attitude about the economy, when the facts are the economy is rolling; it’s doing fabulous.

Forty-two percent of California’s voters say that the state is headed downward —
“California voters are becoming increasingly pessimistic, with immigration issues topping their worries. … But now, burdened by a sputtering economy and doubts about the ability of elected officials to deal with mounting problems, voters’ outlook is split — 42 percent of them said the state is headed in the right direction, while 42 percent gave a negative view.”

Most of it is due to immigration, and whose issue is that? It’s a bunch of Democrats. Democrats have got the state of California in trouble.

If only the Republicans had somebody who could connect the dots for voters in California.

But amidst all of this, all of this doom and gloom, Larry Kudlow had a great piece that ran in NRO:

“If things are so bad, why are they so good? With all the gloom coming out of Wall Street, the Democrats on the campaign trail, and the mainstream media, a remarkable thing just happened: Real gross domestic product, the best summary report of the American economy, came in at a breathtaking 3.9 percent annual rate for the third quarter. In fact, following the 3.8 percent growth rate for the second quarter, the U.S. economy has posted its strongest quarterly growth in four years. The economy actually appears to be speeding up, following the relatively sluggish performance of the prior 18 months. On top of this, the inflation rate is actually slowing down. The consumer spending deflator is reading 2.1 percent for the past year, compared to over 3 percent six quarters ago. The core inflation rate is down to 1.9 percent, below the Fed’s 2 percent target. …

“While many continue to predict a consumer collapse because of falling home prices and tighter credit, after-tax inflation-adjusted income is 4.1 percent ahead of last year. … The little noticed factoid is that consumer energy use per unit of GDP has actually fallen by more than 50 percent in recent decades. Again: If things are so bad, why are they so good? The stock market roared after the Federal Reserve cut its target rate on Wednesday by 25 basis points to 4.5 percent. The rate cut was a small insurance policy. … But listening to the Democratic presidential debate on Tuesday, you’d think it was 1929 all over again.“

Democrat Party, soup line America.

“The litany of scare-talk complaints includes China trade unfairness, globalization, immigration, income inequality, stagnant wages, a shrinking middle class, the sinking dollar, and high oil prices. Yes, there is home deflation on Main Street and loan deflation on Wall Street. It will continue. But what about the rest of the story?”

It’s a great piece that suggests the worst thing that could happen right now is raising tax rates that would destroy what is obviously now —

I even heard Robert B. Reich on CNBC refer to what’s going on as a recovery, right after he said, “Well, I guess the recession is not going to start now.”

So this is a dilemma for me.

When I read quotes from this 46-year-old out in Phoenix, “Yeah, I’m worried about the future,”

… hell, work harder!

“Oh, easy for you to say.” I know, it’s insensitive. Forgive me. I’m sorry. Don’t work harder. Keep whining and moaning.

————————–

REICH: The big news from the, uh, jobs numbers this morning is that the recession is not yet started. I wish I could be as pie-in-the-sky, optimistic Goldilocks as my friend Larry Kudlow.
…

The middle class is — is spending too much in terms of taxes. The middle class has not seen much of a break in terms of this recovery, at all.

“The middle class is spending too much in terms of taxes.”

Folks, we don’t “spend” taxes. They are “collected” from us!

The middle class is spending…? I know this is these elite economists’ type of lingo, but not even elite economists would say this. “The middle class is spending too much in terms of taxes“?

By the way, do you remember back in 2000 — and I do remember this — during the campaign, the presidential campaign of 2000, George W. Bush was warning of a coming recession, while the Clintons were still in the White House. The Clintons, all the media and the Democrat Party went nuts. “Why, you’re talking down the economy! You’re talking down the economy! This is irresponsible in a presidential year!“

Talking down the economy is what the Democrats and the Media have been doing for five consecutive years, maybe more, and that’s one of the reasons why so many people have all of this angst out there when it’s not. It really isn’t necessary, at all. It makes no sense — especially if it’s based on this business of the gap between the rich and the poor.

The gap between the rich and poor is good!

The gap means that the poor, the middle class, have something to shoot for and get! If you have everybody making the same amount of money for the same kind of work, nobody is going to have any incentive to do anything.

So this class-envy card:

“We gotta raise taxes on the rich! The rich have what they have because they’re taking it from the middle class, the poor,” the Democrats put this stuff out there, and class envy in a human nature sense always has some impact, but I don’t think it’s as successful, electorally.

It might be successful in creating a national mood that’s sour, but I don’t know that electorally it’s going to work for them, because we are here this time to dispel it.

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani on Sunday blasted Hillary Rodham Clinton for talking about what she would do on the diplomatic front between her possible election and inauguration.

Clinton has told crowds she would send ‘distinguished Americans of both political parties to travel around the world on my behalf with a very simple message to the governments and the people alike: The era of cowboy diplomacy is over.’

Giuliani, pointing to a story in the Des Moines Register about her statements, said such comments hurt the United States and undermine the balance of President Bush’s term, which ends Jan. 20, 2009.

‘I think that it’s important that we conduct this debate in a way that we don’t interfere with the ability of the country to function in a proper way, between the now and (the election),’ Giuliani said at the start of a town hall-style meeting in Peterborough. Campaigning with his wife, Judith, the former New York mayor said, “Clinton should retract the statements and respect Bush’s responsibility.”

Well, Hillary says to hell with that.

“A spokeswoman for Clinton said Giuliani missed the New York senator’s point. ‘Senator Clinton and Mr. Giuliani have a fundamental disagreement. She will end the war in Iraq, reverse the Bush era cowboy diplomacy and restore America’s standing around the world,‘ said Kathleen Strand. ‘Mr. Giuliani wants to escalate the war in Iraq and supports President Bush’s failed foreign policy approach.‘”

Giuliani said, “Well, Hillary is not president-elect, last time I checked. We’re going to have something to say about that. Hillary’s not even the nominee of her party. It’s very, very premature to be talking about sending ambassadors all around the world even before she becomes president to interfere with the foreign policy of the United States.“

Well, that wouldn’t be anything new. Nancy Pelosi‘s been doing it for quite a while, went over to Syria to try to tell Bashar Assad, (paraphrasing) “Hey, don’t hold it against us. We Democrats love you. Just give us the chance to neuter Bush and take care of that and you won’t have any problems with us anymore.”

I’m surprised she didn’t schedule a meeting with Bin Laden to basically tell him the same thing.

What do you think about that?

I’m going to tell you, the hubris and the sense of conventional wisdom and inevitability, Mrs. Clinton is now going to send distinguished Americans of both parties around the world as ambassadors after she’s elected but before she’s inaugurated, to tell the rest of the world no more cowboy diplomacy. A bit far reaching, not very professional, but typical of power-mad liberals.

LIBERAL MELTDOWN…

New Orleans had been run unchecked and most of the state as well, for 60 years, by liberalism.

It was a microcosm of exactly what will happen to a country or community where liberalism has total control. You saw people unable to help themselves, unwilling to help themselves, incompetent in that area.

You saw a government that was ineffective in evacuating all the people out of there, even though they had numerous buses at their disposal…

– and then, in the aftermath, we saw the breakdown of civility and law and order and a number of other things, and then the liberals started talking about, “Boy, it’s just such a shame. We’ve lost so much of the wonderful culture, the vibrant culture of New Orleans,” and, in large part, they were talking about the slum areas, the poverty areas! Somehow, they were upset.

Let’s try it a new way in New Orleans, great opportunity.

And, lo and behold, Bobby Jindal comes along, runs for governor, and says, basically, he’s going to implement such a plan. He was on Fox News Sunday , and Chris Wallace said to him, “Obviously your biggest job is going to be continue the rebuilding after Hurricane Katrina. What are you going to do about it?“

JINDAL: New Orleans had challenges before the storms. Let’s not pretend like the storms created the crime problems, the housing problems, the educational problems. The storms created a lot of new problems, but they’ve given us a chance to fix problems that were plaguing what I would call one of America’s greatest cities even before the storms. Let’s be bold. Let’s make some real changes. Let’s not just rebuild the failed public housing complexes. Let’s not rebuild the failing public schools. We have a very aggressive charter school, a very aggressive reform movement taking root in New Orleans. Let’s be aggressive. Let’s not rebuild the large public charity hospital without also helping people afford private preventive coverage. One of the most effective programs down here has been a Go Zone program that has reduced taxes, giving tax advantage treatment for people that want to invest down here.

Wipppeee! Now, how did this happen? How did Bobby Jindal end up getting elected in this state that’s been run by liberal Democrats for all these years? Remember after Hurricane Katrina, the focus in the Media was how the Bush administration didn’t care because of the people’s race down there, and may have even rigged those levees to flood! I mean, the conspiracy that abounded!

Bush wanted the levees to not hold so that New Orleans would be flooded. He wanted all the residents out of there, because he wanted the state to become Republican. All of these conspiracy theories abounded.

Now, you tell me: How in the world did Bobby Jindal win down there? If the focus of the Media was so much on the incompetence of FEMA and how Bush didn’t care, and how Bush was a racist, and how Bush might have even steered the hurricane, how they knew it was coming, but nobody properly warned anybody.

I’ll tell you how it happened.

People in the Louisiana know full well that it was the local and the state people that made a mess of things down there, both before and after, and they simply got fed up with it.

Resource:

Transcript: Louisiana Gov.-Elect Bobby Jindal on ‘FNS’

ONLY THE HISTORICALLY NAIVE FALL FOR GLOBAL WARMING CRISIS HYSTERIA

This is from Florida State University and their climatological division.

“Unless a dramatic and perhaps historical flurry of activity occurs in the next nine weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole for tropical cyclones.”

Historically inactive!

“During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date than this year. However, the year is not over,” they say hopefully.

Now, we have this little rain event down there near Puerto Rico and so forth. It’s dumping lots of rain, ten to 12 inches, but it’s going to be curving out over the way. It’s never going to become anything more than a tropical storm. According to forecasts, it’s not going to become a hurricane. So this is the fifth storm this year; we had five last year, and a total of ten since Hurricane Katrina.

The point here is that the global warming mob predicted Hurricane Katrinas year, after year, after year after 2005 because sea surface temperatures had risen, and, of course, man was baking the planet and these catastrophic storms were off the charts.

So people have been predicting this, and they have been dead wrong.

We’re going to post this because there are just a couple of fascinating charts here that show this lack of activity.

By: Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University

Cross Post at Climate Audit (h/t) Steve McIntyre

Unless a dramatic and historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 9 weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date (January-TODAY, Accumulated Cyclone Energy). For the period of June 1 – TODAY, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007. For the North Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Noel is currently too weak to impact any of these results. However, one should always be prepared for late-season developments since hurricane season ends on November 30.

2007 lowest September activity on record since 1977

2006 and 2007 lowest October activity on record since 1976 and 1977

There are currently two worldwide tropical cyclones: Tropical Storm Noel and Unnamed Arabian Sea TS…

The North Atlantic hurricane season is currently nearly 30% below normal in terms of a well-known activity metric called ACE. While the number of named storms is above normal, their integrated intensity has not matched the hyper-active expectations of many seasonal forecasters (e.g. NOAA 140-200% above median). The Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico is also experiencing record inactivity. NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update

Note: on average to date (1970-2006), the Eastern Pacific season is 97% completed, Western Pacific 82%, North Atlantic 93% and overall Northern Hemisphere 87%.

Figure 1. can be permanently found at 2007 Tropical Activity Update (Climatology 1970-2006)

Historic Northern Hemisphere Inactivity During Summer and Early Fall

Figure 2. illustrates the number of tropical cyclone days since 1970 for the Northern Hemsiphere. It represents all storms of > 34 knots intensity during the calendar year (Jan-Dec). On average, an additional 40 tropical cyclone days are expected for the period of October 27 – December 31 (sigma of 16 days). The current departure from the long-term mean is 140 TC days. Approximately 70 tropical cyclone days occurred during the latter parts of 1984, 1992, and 1997.

Figure 2. Historical tropical cyclone days for the calendar year for the Northern Hemisphere including the Eastern Pacific, Northern Western Pacific, Northern Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and North Atlantic Ocean Basins. A storm must have at least 34 knot maximum sustained winds to be included. The red line marks the mean/median of a climatology constructed from 1970-2006 data. Data during the 1970s should be considered with caution.

Figure 3. Historical hurricane days for the calendar year for Northern Hemisphere (as in Fig 2) — must be > 64 knots wind observations. For the remainder of the year, on average, 16 additional hurricane days have occurred. The most active years were 1984, 1990, 1992, and 1997 with > 30 additional H-days for Oct 27-Dec 31. The least active years typically see less than 10 H-days including 1999 and 2000 (8 H-days) and 1973 (0 H-days).

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE JUNE 1 – NOV 30 ACE
NORTH ATLANTIC *** WEST PACIFIC *** EAST PACIFIC ***

Hurricane Ioke of 2006 accounted for 15% of overall Northern Hemisphere TC ACE
Currently, the North Atlantic Basin accounts for 20% of the overall Northern Hemisphere Activity
TC Climatology Trivia

Previous years with exceptionally weak ACE activity (to date: October 29, 00Z)
Link: Tab delimited file of % departure from 1970-2006 Mean to date.
Format of Tab file: EPAC, WPAC, NH, NATL

Sorted Historical Departures [% from 1970-2006 mean to date]:
***EPAC ***WPAC ***NH ***NATL
1983 saw a couple powerful typhoons in the Western Pacific in November. 1977 similarly had several late season typhoons. In the Eastern Pacific, 1983 was very active in October and November with 3 Major Hurricanes. Raymond had a particularly long track. The Atlantic season saw no October activity in 1983.

Link: ACE June 1 – November 30, 1970-2006 for each basin

Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005)
PDI is simply the cubic version of ACE with considerably more weight to more intense storms.

2007 PDI Departure from Climatology (thru October 29, 00Z) **** Current PDI (climo PDI)

Northern Hemisphere = -26% **** 29739 (40288)
North Atlantic = -10% **** 6555 (7282) Effects of the Category 5’s
Eastern Pacific = -64% **** 3875 (10704) Historic inactivity
Western Pacific = -21% **** 17200 (21783) To date, very anomalous

PDI Distribution Climatology (scaled)

Distribution (1944-2007) of PDI per storm: 1% [1.72] ** 3% [2.32] ** 5% [3.0] ** 10% [4.1] ** 25% [8.8] ** 50% [28.3]
75% [103] ** 90% [216] ** 95% [326] ** 98.5% [504] ** 99% [552] ** Max Ivan [859]

Text File of climatological PDI for each day (values are PDI)
Text File of the % to date of PDI [EPAC, WPAC, NORTHHEMI, NATL]

Other Notable World Tropical Cyclones and PDI
Hurricane / SuperTyphoon Ioke 2006 (927)
SuperTyphoon Chaba (WPAC) 2004 (752)
Hurricane Linda (EPAC) 1997 (363) Category 5, strongest on Record
SuperTyphoon Tip (WPAC) 1979 (695) Category 5, lowest ever recorded MSLP of 870 mb

Pre-1944 Notable Hurricanes and PDI
New England Hurricane 1938 (421)
Hurricane 13 of 1936: Landfall North Carolina (297)
Hurricanes 11, 12, 13, 18 of 1933: (198, 213, 236, 234)
Freeport Hurricane of 1932 (55) very rapid pre-landfall development
Cuba Hurricane of 1932 (429)
Bahamas Hurricane of 1932 (447) Category 5
Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 (537) Category 5
Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 (429) Category 4.9
Hurricane 4 of 1926 (680) Long Cape Verde 22 days duration
Hurricane 2 of 1922 (432) Bermuda
Florida Keys Hurricane of 1919 (447)
Galveston Hurricane of 1915 (325)
Hurricane 3 of 1915 (433) no landfall

2007 North Atlantic Season storm PDI
Andrea 2.3 (Subtropical)
Barry 3.4
Chantal 2.5
Dean 386
Erin 1.3 (weak weak weak)
Felix 215
Gabrielle 4.0
Humberto 8.2
Ingrid 2.8
Jerry 2.4
Karen 17.2
Lorenzo 6.7
Melissa 1.9 ACE (Bell et al. 2000) Climatology

Text File of climatological ACE for each day (values are ACE)
Text File of the % to date of ACE [EPAC, WPAC, NORTHHEMI, NATL]
Climatological North Atlantic ACE during calendar year

Northern Hemisphere Plot
Eastern Pacific Plot
Western Pacific Plot

————————————————————–

Other global warming news:

“Rising temperatures could wipe out more than half the earth’s species in the next few centuries, according to researchers who published a study last week linking climate change to past mass extinctions. The study analyzed fossil records, temperature changes over 500 million years, and found that three of the four biggest extinctions, defined as when more than 50% of species disappeared, occurred during periods of high temperature.”

So, wait. Wait, wait. “Five hundred million years…three of the four biggest extinctions…defined periods of high temperature“?

So there’s nothing new about what’s happening now.

I mean, how can we have all these extinctions with no talk of man-made global warming 500 million years ago? “The upper end of the forecast rise would heat the earth close to the temperatures of 250 million years ago when 95% of all animal and plant species became extinct.“

This is a guy, Ken Caldeira, a scientist at the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology. This was in the New York Times, an op-ed piece.

“Despite growing interest in clean energy technology it looks as if we’re not going to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide any time soon. The amount in the atmosphere today exceeds the most pessimistic forecasts made just a few years ago. It’s increasing faster than anybody had foreseen.“

Yeah, and the temperature rise is negligible!

“Even if we could stop adding the greenhouse gases tomorrow, the earth would continue warming for decades and remain hot for centuries.“ We would still face the threat of water from melting glaciers lapping at our doorsteps.

…………………………………………………

This is from James Lewis at the American Thinker.

The headline says it all: “‘Earth Climate is Too Complex to Predict.‘ Science magazine just published a critical review of climate models by Professors Gerald Roe and Marcia Baker of the University of Washington, Seattle. It is echoed in the New Scientist magazine (October 25).

As New Scientist puts it, ‘Climate is too complex for accurate predictions.’ It is evident that the climate system is operating in a regime in which small uncertainties in feedbacks are highly amplified in the resulting climate sensitivity. We are constrained by the inevitable: The more likely a large warming is for a given forcing (i.e., the greater the positive feedbacks), the greater the uncertainty will be in the magnitude of that warming.”

That’s science lingo, but it means is that “After hundreds of millions of dollars spent on climate modeling, and decades of screaming headlines, we have no more certainty today about Global Warming prediction than we did decades ago. What’s more, that is a provable inherent limitation of the data and models.”

The earth is way too complex, the atmosphere, to try to predict this.

Resources:

COAPS: 2007 Yearly Tropical Cyclone Activity to Date

Reuters: Global Warming Could Wipe Out Most Species – Study

American Thinker: SCIENCE: Earth Climate is Too Complex to Predict – James Lewis

PS. Just a reminder: Scientific Censuses is not Scientific FACT.

NEW ORLEANS VERSUS SAN DIEGO –
FROM EXPERIENCE, THEN AND NOW!

It’s a good thing Ray Nagin is not in California.

This is the AP:
“Civility Reigns at San Diego Stadium — Like Hurricane Katrina evacuees two years ago in New Orleans, thousands of people rousted by natural disaster fled to Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, waiting out the calamity, worrying about their homes. The similarities ended there as an almost festive atmosphere reigned at Qualcomm Stadium.”

They have bands here! “Bands were belting out rock ‘n’ roll. There were lavish buffets serving gourmet entrées. There were massage therapists to help relieve…” I kid you not, “massage therapists to reveal the stress of those forced to flee their homes because of wildfires.

‘The people are happy. They have everything here,’ Governor Schwarzenegger declared Monday night after his second Qualcomm tour.” Now, “Although anxieties ran high the misery index seemed low. As the governor waded through the mob, scarcely a complaint was registered with him.” Everybody was asking for pictures with Arnold.

Now, in fairness, we have to mention that Qualcomm is not threatened by fire at the moment. The Superdome was right in the middle of Hurricane Katrina and the roof blew open.

So it’s not quite a perfect comparison, but it still is juicy.

It is an interesting contrast nevertheless.

San Diego is, in large part, conservative community-oriented. Louisiana is not.

Here in SD, people are pitching in and so forth. It’s just a fascinating contrast.

Qualcomm Stadium didn’t spring a leak that the Superdome did. I think the comparison that you’re hearing people make all day is not between the two structures and the circumstances, but rather the attitudes of people.

The big difference in the two is that the local officials in New Orleans were derelict in getting the need out there, and saying that what Qualcomm Stadium represents is an evacuation of the danger area. In New Orleans, people were evacuated within the target area, with the hopes that the structure would hold.

We had all those school buses to get people out, and they didn’t. That’s the real difference. Whether people wanted to leave or not, we know, the evacuation plan was not put into place. There were way too many people still left in because once the storm hit, the 12 feet of water and the floods and the levees and so forth, there was no way out anyway even if you did have vehicles.

It was up to the National Guard and their helicopters and boats — and, by the way, they did more rescues in Hurricane Katrina than in any other disaster. It was a great performance by the Coast Guard. It’s been overshadowed and ignored by a lot of people.

FOR REASONS OF FULL DISCLOSURE:

I GREW UP IN NEW ORLEANS – ATTENDED UNO- , NOW I LIVE IN NORTH SAN DIEGO COUNTY…

SO DISASTERS, I KNOW. BEEN THRU BOTH AND EVEN ONES THAT DIDN’T MAKE WORLDWIDE COVERAGE.

LIVING THE CURRENT FIRE STORM HERE. WILL TRY TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE REAL EVENTS GOING ON… NOT THE HYPE.

HERE IN SAN DIEGO, WE ARE SURVIVORS… NOT VICTIMS.

Side note: to all the dedicated firefighters, police, my friends, neighbors and others, here in SD; thanks for all the help and kindness shown to all those in need!

God Bless You All!